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here is no group to sustain the transmission. It is the subculture that makes for
the pot-to-heroin connection, not the drug itself. The central concept in the Ball piece is
"differential association—becoming part of a drug-taking group." Needless to say, the
propagandists hold the article to support their own "effects" argument; the findings
actually refute this contention. (Actually, in his conclusions, Ball also mentions the effectsreason
as one of the various possible explanations for the link: "marijuana is taken for its
euphoric effects.")
However, another caveat is necessary. The Lexington study, like most studies of drug
progressions, was made up entirely of addicts, incarcerated ones at that. It was not done
with a cross-section of marijuana users. Therefore, we have no idea of how typical their
(12 of 24)4/15/2004 1:07:52 AM
The Marijuana Smokers - Chapter 8
experience with drugs was. The relevant statistic should not be a retrospective percentage
of narcotic addicts who have ever used pot, but a percentage of the total universe of all
those who have ever used marijuana who also ever became addicted to heroin. The whole
reasoning process in studies of addicts is backwards. By all indications, the percentage of
marijuana users who ever become narcotics addicts is quite small; the relevant question
here is whether this minuscule minority forms a larger percentage than the total universe
of those who have never smoked marijuana.
Out of this seemingly innocent source, gallons of ink have gushed forth in fatuous
debate. The progressionists claim that the percentage of addicts who have ever tried
marijuana—70 percent in the Ball study, as high as over go percent in others—indicates
that pot leads to heroin. The pro-pot propagandists claim that this figure is meaningless,
because l00 percent of all addicts drank milk, so that milk is more predictive of later
heroin use than marijuana. The antiprogression position is correct on one level, but
erroneous on another. In theory, it is always improper to cite the percentage of addicts
who ever used marijuana to demonstrate the validity of the stepping-stone hypothesis,
because other progressions (milk to heroin) are even stronger. But empirically, we have to
assume that the percentage of addicts who have ever used marijuana is higher than for the
population at large. Since the percentage of addicts and nonaddicts who once used
milk—l00 percent—is the same, this factor provides no differentiating power. But the
addict-retrospective argument is also improper, because (1) we do not know whether the
percentage of addicts who once used pot is any different for addicts and nonaddicts (we
have to assume it, though it is probably a correct assumption); (2) we do not know how
much more the addict figure is; (3) and we do not know why it should be more. So the
Lexington data does not really tell us very much about drug progression until we have
more data, most particularly
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